Unlike previous efforts, the Deby-Bashir deal is promising

First, the scene was not outside the two countries’ borders, but in Khartoum.

That the two foes — Deby and Bashir — can fully trust each other is perhaps a reflection on how much the situation has changed.

At one time they couldn’t talk. In fact, in July 2008, Deby refused to meet al-Bashir on the sidelines of the African Union Summit in Egypt despite the urging of Burkina Faso’s President Blaise Compaore.

Also, the rebels have been weakened. After the botched attempts at peace talks in Sirte in 2008, the tide started shifting against the Darfur rebel groups who failed to show up. The few that did send junior officials.

Rebel leaders also seem to have favoured soft ground over the bush. Some hang around East African capitals, including Juba.

Others such as al Nur in Paris, have chosen to execute the war from capital towns far away.

According to various Darfuris, most leaders of the various factions cannot enter Darfur because they have no base or force to support them against government forces.

Hence, Deby is better off being on the same page with Bashir than sticking with the rebels.

The timing is especially crucial because both Deby and Bashir head to the elections this year. Bashir goes first in April.

It is possible that neither really wants a daring raid by rebels backed by the other in the middle of an election.

According to one JEM spokesman, Bashir, who is unlikely to sweep many votes in the south and east of the country, needs a vote from Darfur to be certain of winning the Sudan presidency.

Deby, a godfather to some of the Darfur rebel factions can deliver them to Bashir. And, of course, both men distrust the UN.

Bashir’s engagement with the UN has not been without grumbling.

In fact, the UN was told to keep off the elections there. Deby wants the UN civilian and military contingent out of the country by July, just over a year after the force arrived.

Before the UN peacekeeping force, the European Union force kept the peace there.